看了一个国际投资公司对于电信市场的研讨会纪录，特摘录如下，供大家探讨！
What will be likely impact on competition levels in the industry once we have a three-player market post restructuing?
（当重组之后，3个运营商的市场结构，会对竞争造成什么样的影响呢？ ）
Answer: It would impact on the situation deeply. After china telecom achieved CDMA network from Unicom, they would try their best to gain more subscribers, based on their corporate clients basement, and on their south area influence in China. They would launch more services based on integrated interfaces including fixed line and new wireless.
（结论：对竞争形势将有很深入的影响。如果中国电信得到联通的CDMA网络，他们会尽最大努力获取新的无线用户，他们的基础是企业用户和中国南部的深刻影响。他们会部署更多的服务，这些服务是基于多种通信接入方式为基础的，比如固网和无线的综合营销。）
China telecom’s most advance is that, they are good at IT market more than china mobile. They have good history on corporate ICT services. Based on that, they would gain more VAS chances.
（中国电信比较占优势的，在于他们对于IT市场了解的更多，要多于中国移动，他们在企业的IT应用方面有更好的历史成绩。在此基础上，他们会获得更多的增值业务机会。）
On the other side, china Netcom, they are not good at hard competition situation.
（另一方面，中国网通则不太善于强烈的竞争环境。）
What will be the likely impact on industry capex levels post restructuring? Will it increase or decrease? Which player will see the highest growth in capex?
市场变动对于资本支出的影响是什么样的呢？
Answer: The most telecom capex could come from china mobile.
（答案：主要的成本支出应该来自中国移动 ）
Future CAPEX prediction (next 5 years, CNY):
China mobile new china telecom new china Unicom
400,000,000,000 80,000,000,000 100,000,000,000
To each parties, both on new 3G and former networks.
What is the long-term out look for capex in the industry? Do you expect it to peak at some point of time and start declining eventually. When do you expect it to peak?
Answer: Once restructuring occurred, Capex would peak in the next 12 month. The high Capex would live for 24 month. 8 months after restructuring, Sth would happen.
CAPEX would go down slowly after 3 years. At that time, we have more new situations below:
1. Carriers would change their policy and strategy, once they met barriers when they promote their penetration deeply, cost of market and management would go up more.
2. Price of the network would be reduced 18% off every years, based on cheap Chinese vendors’ product.
3. Coverage would be enhanced unlimited. We thought the target is 80% in 2013.
老外的思路，仅供参考，数字也不够精确，甚至差异很大。
希望大家有所借鉴。
TAG: 中国电信